Meeting ID: 969 2342 0206
Passcode: 154107
Cities worldwide are increasingly confronted with compound and cascading disasters that overwhelm risk management systems designed for simpler, more predictable threats. Yet, as climate risks intensify, governance capacity is becoming increasingly uncertain when it is needed most. Drawing on research in Manila, Tokyo, Lagos, and Portland, this study examines whether cities are prepared for compound risks under changing climatic, socioeconomic, demographic, and governance conditions over a 20-year horizon. The analysis combines resident interviews (n = 112) with expert interviews (n = 77) to explore future risk scenarios and pathways for urban transformation. Findings show that across all four cities, participants called for major changes under scenarios where climate risks intensify and governance capacity declines. In Lagos and Portland, participants emphasized major changes in planning for flooding, extreme heat, and growing inequality. Similar concerns emerged in Manila, while Tokyo participants placed greater emphasis on the challenges of an aging population as climate and earthquake risks increase. Although the development contexts of these cities vary, residents across all four cities expressed a preference for people-centered risk management through inclusive governance, reduced inequality, stronger social cohesion, equitable relocation, ecosystem restoration, safer and more affordable housing, expanded knowledge and capacity, and integrated urban planning. Translating these visions into action is critical to strengthening urban resilience and advancing just adaptation to future compound disasters.
Dr. Jola Ajibade is a scholar-activist and Associate Professor at Emory University. Her research advances new thinking on disaster resilience, climate mobilities and adaptation, urban greening, climate labor, and just energy transitions, with particular attention to how institutions, governments, businesses, and community organizations can better serve historically marginalized communities. Working across the Global North and Global South, she collaborates with diverse partners to co-produce strategies that integrate environmental justice, community knowledge, and decolonial and care-centered approaches into policy and practice. Dr. Ajibade served as a Contributing Author to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and has consulted for UNEP and the WHO–UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. Her award-winning research has appeared in leading journals, including Nature, Science, and PNAS, and has been featured in international media. She currently serves as Deputy Editor of Climatic Change and on the editorial board of Nature Communications Sustainability.