Life in Hampton Roads, Part VI: Presidential Preferences Probed
October 03, 2016
Jesse Richman
Polling data collected during Old Dominion University's seventh annual Life in Hampton Roads (LIHR) survey suggests Republican candidate Donald Trump may face a strong challenge in the quest to win the swing state of Virginia.
Jesse Richman, associate professor of political science and former director of the LIHR survey, said responses from 962 Hampton Roads residents, provided just before the party conventions this summer, indicate that Trump has struggled to rally the typical Republican coalition - social conservative voters, those who seek to limit the reach of the federal government and military "hawks."
"Trump's numbers in the seven cities surveyed suggest that this campaign is on track to underperform Mitt Romney's losing campaign in 2012," Richman said. "LIHR found that Trump's support among Republican identifiers was 14 percent lower than Clinton's support among Democratic identifiers."
The presidential politics section with the final chapter of the six-part survey by ODU's Social Science Research Center. Links to other sections are below.
The annual survey asks Hampton Roads residents a series of questions on subjects ranging from education, health, policing and sea level rise. This year's survey, coordinated by Randy Gainey and Tancy Vandecar-Burdin, faculty director and associate director of the social science research center, included a section on presidential politics by Richman, because it is an election year.
"State level and regional polling this election season reveals an intriguing transformation. Virginia is leaning more toward Democrat Hillary Clinton than many other swing states. Indeed, the Clinton campaign pulled major advertising buys because its standing had climbed so high," Richman said.
Polling in the LIHR survey found Clinton with a lead of around six percentage points over Trump in a two-candidate race. The most recent Real Clear Politics average has Clinton ahead of Trump by the same margin - a lead larger than her advantage in every other Real Clear Politics battleground state.
Richman said several factors could be affecting Virginia's tilt toward the Democratic Party. In this election, the selection by Clinton of Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine is seen as pushing undecided voters toward the Democratic candidate.
In addition, Richman suggested Virginia has also shifted demographically toward the Democratic Party. "There are some modest hints that this might be the case in the LIHR data - Republican Party identification in 2016 was the second lowest since LIHR began asking the question," he said.
Another possible explanation, Richman said, has to do with Trump as the Republican nominee.
"Republican leaders in the state and region including U.S. Rep. Scott Rigell and former U.S. Sen. John Warner have publicly come out against Trump," he said. "While Trump may yet manage to consolidate support, time is beginning to run out."
Click here see the entire Life in Hampton Roads survey release on the Presidential election.
The survey includes responses gathered from Hampton Roads residents via landline and cell phone. The previous five sections of the survey are available by clicking the corresponding links:
Monday, Sept. 26 - Quality of life
Tuesday, Sept. 27 - Crime and police
Wednesday, Sept. 28 - Health and education
Thursday, Sept. 29 - Transportation
Friday, Sept. 30 - Sea level rise and flooding
The Life in Hampton Roads survey receives support from the Old Dominion Office of Research and the College of Arts and Letters. The complete report is now available on the Social Science Research Center website.