CCPO and ODU-RC Seminar - Nov. 7
CCPO and ODU Resilience Collaborative Fall 2016 Seminar
MONDAY, 7 November 2016
3:30 p.m., Conference Center
First Floor, IRB II
4211 Monarch Way
Web streaming link:
http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/seminar.html
or
http://vs.odu.edu/kvs/interface/?cid=201530_CCPOSeminarSeriesVS_96096
The next seminar will be presented by Dr. Rachel Davidson from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Delaware. Dr. Davidson’s research focuses on natural disaster risk modeling and civil infrastructure systems. She develops engineering models to assess impacts of future natural disasters and to support decisions to help reduce future losses. Her seminar will present recent work in this area that is directed towards supporting decision-making concerning hurricane evacuation. Her model is applied to Hurricane Isabel as a case study, which had significant effects on the Hampton Roads region. The recent experience with Hurricane Matthew points to the need for the type of decision-making tools that Dr. Davidson is developing.
More information on Dr. Davidson’s research is available at:
http://www.ce.udel.edu/directories/profiles.html?rdavidso
Dr. Davidson will be at ODU on Monday. Please contact Michelle Covi (mcovi@odu.edu) if you would like to schedule time to talk with her.
Coffee and cookies are available prior to the seminar at 3:00 p.m.
Everyone is encouraged to attend the seminar.
Title: An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-based Hurricane Evacuation Modeling Framework
Abstract
In this talk I will introduce a new Integrated Scenario-based Evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision-making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous efforts. Hazard is represented using an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior using a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multi-stage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state-of-the-art because: (1) they are based on an integrated hazard assessment, (2) they explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) they offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) they leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in Eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program.
Biography
Rachel Davidson is a Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, a core faculty member in the Disaster Research Center, and Associate Dean for Diversity at the University of Delaware. She conducts research on natural disaster risk modeling and civil infrastructure systems. She is a Fellow and Past-President of the Society for Risk Analysis, a Fellow of the Executive Leadership in Academic Technology and Engineering (ELATE) program, and past-Chair of the Executive Committee of the ASCE Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering (TCLEE). She has been a mentor for the “Enabling the Next Generation of Hazards and Disaster Researchers” program and the Career Enhancement of Academic Women in Earthquake Engineering (ENHANCE) program, both funded by NSF.
Posted By: Julie Morgan
Date: Fri Nov 04 07:32:43 EDT 2016